Neha Kulkarni

I am in such awe of my South Asian peers who are the real luminaries of Dubai banking/finance and who invariably list their alphabet soup of academic honours after their names on their LinkedIn profiles. So we have Rajiv/Rekha Sixpack (milk pack if Gujju) boast ACCA, CPA, CFA, CIMA, FRM, BS, MS and RSS. I cannot compete with these accolades of professional virtue though I did manage a MBA (Muppet of Bubbleology and Amnesia) from Wharton. Yet my nose for bubbles in world finance was learnt as a teenager blowing up my Dad's account plus two semesters of Penn tuition in COMEX gold/silver futures. Nothing the finance profs said or wrote was any use when I was a grunt in the combat zone of a Wall Street trading desk. What Sigmund Freud said about death wishes, is way more critical than what the Fed Chair says about interest rates. So what does the Bubbleologist babble now? The opening salvo of history's bloodiest sovereign debt crisis was fired last week by the Bank of Japan when it raised its policy rate to 0.25% and ignited a $14 trillion crash in global risk assets. The Nikkei Dow plunged 20%, Japanese megabanks fell 30% in 3-trading sessions, the yen's spike from 161 to 142 in a black swan shock, bid/ask spreads were vapourized in the Eurobond and GCC sukuk markets. J Pierpont Morgan was dead right - "Liquidity is really like a cab on a rainy night. It disappears when you need it the most". Voilà! The great miracle happened as if the Sun Goddess had waved her magic wand on Mount Fuji. A BOJ vice governor Uchida bowed to the world, explained that love means never having to say you are solly and it was all one big misunderstanding and Sensei JayPo would save the global banking village. Sure enough, the Volatility Index was 60 before the NYSE open on Monday and ended the week at 22 after the Fed went eyeball to eyeball with the BOJ and the BOJ dutifully blinked, just like Nikita Khrushchev during the Cuban missile crisis. Wall Street sounded the all clear siren to buy NVDA, MSFT and META for moa. So all is hunky dory now? J.P. Morgan assures us that 75% of the carry trade is over, just like Ben Bernanke once assured us that subprime would be contained at the height of the credit bubble in 2007. Dr. Goebbels was on the money when he said that a lie, repeated often enough, becomes the truth. The entire Empire of the Rising Sun is one giant yen carry trade. Japanese banks have borrowed trillions of yen at zero money from Mrs. Watanabe and lent/invested abroad in high yield assets. Japan's government pension fund owns $3 trillion in foreign stocks and bonds. The BOJ has nationalized the JGB government bond market. The carry trade unwind has barely begun, this is why I have argued for the last 3-months that we are on the precipice of the greatest wealth destruction cycle in human history. Take the US private credit market, a $2 trillion black hole where I hunt for the Big Shorts. Oops... no space.

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🎉 In the UK, from 18th July to 17th August, we are celebrating South Asian Heritage Month, in which we honor the rich history, diverse cultures, and significant contributions of South Asian communities. This period commemorates pivotal events like India and Pakistan's independence from British rule, fostering awareness and appreciation of South Asian heritage's profound impact globally and locally. The theme for South Asian Heritage Month 2024, "Free to Be Me," emphasizes individuality and authenticity. For me, it means being free to embrace my unique cultural identity without any fear or reservation. Colleagues expressing their true selves at work fosters belonging, well-being, and engagement. Employers valuing authenticity cultivate employee longevity, loyalty, and inclusive workplace cultures. Our South Asian colleagues enrich our workplaces with cultural richness, culinary diversity, and creative brilliance. Vibrant festivals like Diwali, Eid, and delicious cuisines tantalize our taste buds. In creativity, South Asians excel in music, dance, fashion, and technology, bringing dynamism and innovation to our community. At times, when hate and division feature in the headlines, embracing and celebrating diversity counters negativity, strengthens our social fabric, and fosters unity and mutual respect. Let's honor our unique identities and champion values of inclusion and acceptance during South Asian Heritage Month. Together, let's create a workplace and world where everyone is truly free to be themselves. 🌟 Image Credit: South Asian Heritage Month #SouthAsianHeritageMonth #DiversityAndInclusion #FreeToBeMe #AuthenticityAtWork #CelebratingDiversity

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Yes, public leadership should be about creating an environment which enables, incentivises and rewards any and all corporate and individual members of society, and is a model to add optimum value in a globally competitive market. Public leaders including Prime Minister can’t do more, they can’t do it for us. The world would be a healthier, safer and happier place if this challenging purpose of public leadership was being routinely delivered. 8rather than by acception, and the electorate stopped thinking, expecting and saying the Government should do or provide XYZ for us.

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DECUMULATION IDEAS #126. 2 MORE FREE BOOKS DROP TODAY... 1. A SMART APPROACH TO PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT (h/t Shaila Fernandes-Muralidhar at RoyalFern Publishing LLC for giving up rights) - I wrote this book after the 2008 crash destroyed the average portfolio (especially the Yale Model portfolios loaded up on private assets), but where our strategies and those of good friends (Cees Dert Roland van den Brink) did incredibly well. Really relevant today as we are currently 2008 on steroids - https://lnkd.in/ggybkTpX 2. 50 States of Gray: An Innovative Solution to the Defined Contribution Retirement Crisis (h/t Investments & Wealth Institute, especially Debbie Nochlin) - better reform model for state-based IRAs that folks at Pew Research Center and Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives try to make a case for. Where I show how #SeLFIES fit into an effective overall retirement system that can deliver GUARANTEED REAL RETIREMENT INCOME at LOW-COST AND LOW-RISK. Current state-based plans are WAY TOO expensive for what they deliver - https://lnkd.in/gTtAgX4G

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The Shein IPO and the Intel LBO were dream deals in a dismal 2025! 2025 has only a few hours left to go before the New Year firecracker hail 2026. It was an awful year as the bubble finally vaporised with a venom/virulence that exceeded even the cyclical peaks of 2001 and 2008. Yet 2025 proved profitable for a few investors who went gaga/MAGA in two wildly profitable deals that were dissed by the grandees of finance. These dream deals were the Shein IPO in London in April and Blackstone's mega leverage buyout (LBO) of Intel in June. Intel was the biggest LBO in history whose $200 billion price tag made the legendary Hilton/RJR Nabisco buyouts seem like chump change. The Shein IPO on the LSE was the first real mega deal since the pandemic that hit pay dirt when the IPO window reopened. Even though this online fashion retailer broke syndicate at its private funding last round at $60 billion, the London IPO was boycotted by most American endowments, pension funds and hedge funds due to its Chinese provenance. Yet global investors snapped up the Shein IPO with all the enthusiasm of a hungry shark thrown a haunch of bloody meat. Shein is the second largest apparel retailer in the Milky Way after Amazon. Its secular earnings growth rate is easily 25% a year even though it was profitable well before its IPO. The Shein business model is unique. Its asset lite, IP driven, low capex business model is a winner since it generates 5-times the revenue per employee of its brick and mortar competitors. So Zara's revenue per employee is $400,000 while Shein outclasses with a colossal $2 million on this key metric. Shein is also an early adopter of AI in its software and its optimization model allocates site demand among 20,000 factories across the Dragon Empire. In a risk-off year when the S&P Index lost 30% and Bitcoin plunged to 40,000, my partners and I were only saved by a decision to take a deep dive into the Shein IPO since we all agreed that this was the Nvidia of fast fashion. Bingo! Shein won the mandate of heaven and its post IPO val doubled pronto to $120 billion in Londinium. This IPO was not the usual PRC funny money! In retrospect, Intel was an LBO target the minute its board fired CEO Pat Gelsinger and left the fallen angel/ugly duckling of the semiconductor sector to the tender mercies of the trillion dollar AUM private equity colossus Blackstone, whose chairman once earned $10 billion in a single year. Trump's return to power meant the end of the M&A deal making ice age under Joe Biden. The ouster of Gary Gensler at the SEC, Lina Khan at the FTC and Merrick Garland at Justice is nirvana for Wall Street's deal Masters of the Universe and the guys at Blackstone were sitting on the biggest cash hoard in the world and access to credit lines from banks all over the planet. So they pounced on Intel, down 65% since 2020. INTC shares instantly doubled from 20 to 40. 2025 was sure the year it paid to know the difference between BO and an LBO!

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It all stared with one conversation with Jojujohn Gonsalves and he suggested me to complete IOC as this can give an extra edge to be a trainer in our industry. Later Kapil Wahal introduced me with Sharmila Suresh Ghoghe from The Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (The CISI) and she introduced me with Jasneet Singh Bindra. The journey has been smooth till now , cleared all three levels in the first attempt and focusing to train students to clear their all levels in the first attempt. My CISI trainings comes with case studies and homework, I am sure those who have studied with me would understand the pain of the process and achievements once placed. My special gratitude to Clara Bonner FPA Edutech and all my ex colleagues who supported me imparting their learning and giving me holidays to appear for my examination. Manan Lambah has been instrumental in this journey as he supported me from exam booking till post result. Ragini Mishra Kuldeep More Deepseet Das I am thankful to all three of you for your help to ensure I am revising the relevant curriculum. Nishita Santuka thanks for your quick insight on operational risk , as that helped me to prepare in better manner. Now the question is what next, maybe rest for a month and than some other module from The Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (The CISI). I am officially ACSI now and looking forward to attain MSCI soon. Long way go. Cake was already cut for this and post was pending as i was waiting for my certificate. Happy Learning!! #ProfessionalGrowth #CareerDevelopment #CISI #FinanceTraining #FinancialServices #CareerMilestone #ProfessionalCertification #TrainerLife #Education #AchievementUnlocked #ContinuedLearning #SuccessJourney #Networking #IndustryExpert #FinanceIndustry #LearningJourney #CareerGoals #SkillDevelopment #FinanceTrainer #ExamSuccess #FuturePlans #FinancialEducation #ACSI #MSCI

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I had the opportunity last week to unveil this fascinating research that HURUN INDIA & Anas Rahman Junaid did in collaboration with Barclays Private Clients which celebrates the immense contribution and value created by Indian family businesses and recognises the top Multi generational family businesses instrumental in India’s economic growth story. Like Barclays, a bank built over centuries with a rich heritage of 330+ years, longevity of these businesses is an extraordinary achievement. The fact that names featured on this list control an astounding $1.3 Trillion in value (more than the combined GDP of Switzerland & UAE) further establishes them as future powerhouses of growth and innovation. We are proud to be associated and work with a number of names in this list. Asia continues to see sustained growth with India expected to be the 3rd largest economy globally by 2027. This coupled with a massive inter generational wealth transfer in India and Asia means that wealth management needs are constantly evolving. Barclays Private Bank has significant growth ambitions for our India, NRI and Asia business as we aim to become the preferred partner for the Indian community globally, and for UHNIs & Global Family Offices across Asia. We are rightly placed to help these individuals by leveraging Barclays’ best-in-class solutions, integrated coverage, and global connectivity to major wealth hubs of UK, Swiss, Dubai & Singapore. We intend to continue enhancing and expanding our capabilities and coverage across India and Singapore to best serve these clients as they Influence Tomorrow ! #BarclaysPrivateBank, #BarclaysPrivateClients, #IndianFamilyBusinesses, #AsiaGrowth, #IndiaGrowth Adrish Ghosh Hussain Selani Evonne Tan Barclays Private Bank Barclays in India Andrew Richmond Shally Aggarwal Swati Singh

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Payam Kazemian shares his insights on long term management of risk through LDI. There were learnings around governance through the gilts crisis and demonstrated the need to be aware of all the risks that schemes are exposed to and make a conscious decision around mitigations. #LDI #hymans #zedra #insights

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Today marks a significant milestone in my journey—a full year since I took the bold step of moving from the vibrant landscapes of India to the bustling streets of London. A year ago, I stood at a crossroads, driven by ambition and the desire to grow. The decision to leave behind my parents was daunting, but I knew I wanted more—more opportunities, more challenges, and a chance to achieve bigger things. It was a leap into the unknown, one that required not just courage, but an unwavering persistence. The early days in London were a whirlwind of emotions. I was excited yet overwhelmed, filled with hope but also a tinge of fear. There were countless moments where I questioned my choice, where the weight of being in a new environment felt heavy. But it was my perseverance that pushed me through. I reminded myself that every great achievement requires a journey filled with trials. I embraced the discomfort. I sought out connections, immersed myself in the local culture, and started to learn from every interaction. Each challenge I faced became an opportunity to grow stronger and more resilient. This past year has been transformative, both professionally and personally. I’ve had the opportunity to work on projects, collaborate with talented individuals from around the globe, and contribute to initiatives that resonate deeply with my passions. But beyond professional achievements, this journey has taught me the importance of resilience and the power of stepping outside my comfort zone. Each challenge has shaped me, and every success has reinforced my belief in the possibilities that lie ahead.   As I celebrate this milestone, I want to emphasize the power of perseverance. Every step we take, no matter how small, brings us closer to our dreams. Embrace your own journey—celebrate your resilience and keep pushing forward, even when obstacles arise. Remember, it’s not just about the destination; it’s about the growth we experience along the way. The world is full of opportunities, and our potential is limitless. #Perseverance#Proudmoment#GratefulForTheOpportunity

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Should be a very insightful event - full details below.

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Well-being of bankers matters. ✅ Great to see this development at J.P. Morgan regarding dedicated resources to employee well-being for their junior bankers. Judging by the comments in the article, such development could be seen as 'superficial' given the significant demands placed upon employees who work in investment banking, as well as the fact that the Financial Times chose to highlight the word 'wellbeing'. Yet, whilst this measure may not 'shift the dial' and change the culture of investment banking (which is another topic altogether), such employees need to have access to resources and know where to go to get support when it comes to maintaining their individual well-being. Recent tragic cases only emphasise the significant importance of this. As I noted in the title of an unrelated email I recently received, "all lives matter", and that includes those who are on the front line meeting the demands of the clients of the bank, no matter how junior they may be. #wellbeing #finance #wellbeingatwork

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Amongst the top challenges mentioned in this article, 36% of the parents who were surveyed had trouble arranging visas, accommodation, fee transfers, travel, etc. This can be very stressful, especially for those parents who are going through the study abroad process for the first time. As one parent put it very candidly when I met him for the first time - “It’s the first time parent anxiety.” And honestly, that statement hit home! Because this “anxiety” is exactly what we, at FRR FOREX, are addressing with a transparent and honest approach and being true to all the families that avail our services. OnCourse Vantage Pvt. Ltd. Katherine Ernst Mehta Ritu Wason Punnya Vij Alok Bansal NexTrack Abhinav Nath Ameya Gharpure Admit Abroad #StudyAbroad #ParentingChallenges #VisaSupport #TravelPlanning #FeeTransfers #FRRForex #ParentAnxiety #StudentVisa #InternationalEducation #ForexServices #FinancialSolutions

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Stalwarts of innovative finance in India talking about how the first three three major impact bonds our country has seen came into existence, and the lessons for all of us trying to build this market…

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Many new and small banks in the UK struggle with variety of issues ranging from culture & governance to capital & business models - many of them eventually fail. While some failure of firms in a competitive economy is healthy, there is disproportionate loss of economic value in the process. Lok in this article for LinkedIn explores the issues involved and mitigants thereof. Happy to hear what you think of issues articulated here. Association of Foreign Banks (AFB) UK Finance

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Closely watching India's rise on several key sectors, a combination of rising domestic demands, increased exports, investments in India’s infrastructure , simplification of the business environment, skills development and subsidies to to manufacture in India. Electronics and semiconductor sectors- large global players are engaged and there his visible visible progress in execution Electric Vehicles & autos-Huge transition to EVs, leveraging our strong manufacturing base for automobiles Renewable Energy-Solar energy, India will significantly outpace all forms of energy capacity additions over the coming decade, driven by decarbonisation commitments and favourable policy dispensation Pharmaceuticals-Rise in Research & development and manufacturing and medical devices manufacturing Defence and industrial production-India is transitioning from a reliance on imported defence equipment to enhancing indigenous production and private sector engagement. Sonal Varma, thanks for the excellent research article from Nomura, a true depiction of reality as I see it on the ground.

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Only weeks after Sainsbury's and Tesco announced plans to exit their existing arrangements for consumer banking, Marks and Spencer signs a seven year extension of its JV with HSBC (which operates under a separate M&S banking license) 'M&S’s two million credit card users are among its most loyal customers, spending incrementally more than customers without a M&S credit card and representing c.16% of M&S’ turnover.' M&S is focusing on a ever greater connected experience, linking credit, loyalty and rewards and the data that underlines it. The value to the loyal consumer as well as the brand is clear, M&S believes. This why I think the other two big retailers aren't exiting banking altogether but rethinking the set up. #EmbeddedFinance #BaaS https://lnkd.in/eVc5CAnu

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In 2015, I had two choices. Settle in the US or live with parents in India. This is a story that takes me back to life's difficult choices that make you humble. Ankit and I had just gotten our U.S. visas approved. We were excited—this was our chance to expand Hexaview Technologies Inc. and finally meet our clients face-to-face. Until then, we had built relationships purely on trust, without ever seeing each other’s faces as video calls weren’t as common. When we arrived, the question hit us: “When are you settling in the U.S.?” It made sense—moving there could open doors, fuel our growth, and deepen client connections. Yet, for us, it wasn’t that simple. Ankit and I, both of us, are incredibly close to our parents, but parents are not considered as a family in the US. So they couldn't relocate with us. We knew that no business opportunity could outweigh the bond we shared with our families. So, we made a choice. Hexaview Technologies Inc. would grow and expand, but our home base would remain in India. We chose family over relocation. Looking back, we have no regrets. Our business has thrived, and our connections with clients have only grown stronger. It reminded us that success isn’t just about where you go or what you achieve; it’s about who you have by your side. P.S. I visit the US every other month, cherishing my time there as much as I do back home. #Hexaview #LifeChoices #EntrepreneurshipJourney

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Meera, a high flying corporate executive, was bent on using the money earned from her ESOPs to buy a second house as an investment which could be passed on to her children later. Her spouse Karan was against it as it would mean postponing their retirement plan. My article in Business Standard on how Karan and I managed to convince Meera to invest the money into financial assets instead. "You do not buy a cow today just because you may need milk years later. You make sure you have the money to buy the cow should you require it later" was one of the arguments that helped to convince Meera. What do you think? Please do give your comments. Article link https://bit.ly/4be2qTu NAPFA - National Association of Personal Financial Advisors Association of Registered Investment Advisers (ARIA) Fee Only Investment Advisers LLP (SEBI Regn No: INA00014836 Circle Wealth Advisors Private Limited #personalfinance #realestateinvesting

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